Goldman Sachs Layoffs in May 2025?

If This Happens, We’ve Got Bigger Problems

I’m gonna start this off with… I am not buying this… at least not yet.

UPDATE 3/4/25- OMG it happened.

Goldman is infact shifting the SRA playbook. Honestly gobsmacked. I have the job cut #'s solid for the year- but for 10 years, 0% of cuts happened in May -- so this is big. HUGE actually. Speaks volumes of what is to come.

This isn’t just ‘underperformers.’ VPs are being dropped.

Keep reading to see the 3 possible scenarios this tells us:

So a story came out 3/3… Goldman Sachs cutting 3-5% of its workforce in May? That’s 1,380 to 2,300 employees gone. No sources cited. No real details. Goldman? Silent. Reuters, AP, WSJ, Bloomberg. Not a peep. No confirmation. No denial. No damage control.

Notice the pink bars dropping- that is the big layoffs every year from GS - These are the SRAs— the 3-5% job cuts and when they make them. There have been 0 Culls in May, just normal job cuts- going all the way back to 2015 when I pulled some quick stats. Probably further. It’s not just a pre-covid move they are doing.

Now, not to say this reporter doesn’t have some kind of insider whisper, but damn, this feels out of the blue. Why? Because Q2 layoffs at Goldman are a myth.

From 2015 to 2024, literally 0% of their standard SRA (Strategic Resource Assessment) layoffs landed in May. Zero. It’s not their style. If you’ve watched Goldman long enough, you know their annual workforce trims happen in Q3-Q4. September, usually.

If GS’s comp ratio dips below 28% in Q1/Q2 2025, expect MD/VP exits to spike by mid-year (June-August).

So what’s different this time? Why the shift? Is it even real? Because if it is? We’ve got a problem.

Can I just say… I called 2024 layoffs?

Goldman Sachs Layoffs by Year (2015-2024)

• Layoffs fluctuated between 1,300 and 1,800 employees per year.

• 2024 Layoffs (1,600) were highlighted as the most recent benchmark.

• Historically, layoffs have stayed within the 3-4% range of total workforce.

So yeah, let’s start with what we know.

We’ve got their 10-Qs. We have their SEC filings. If Goldman was planning this big of a workforce cut in May, wouldn’t we see something - anything - in the filings?

1. Margins? Holding up.

2. EBITDA per employee? Solid.

3. Hiring vs. Layoffs trends? No major contraction signals yet.

Why do I know this? Ohhh I’ve been into GS SEC filings up the wazoo the past week in a special project I’m working on just for you.

To be frank, Goldman has a funny way of not talking about layoffs in their filings. They never come out and say, “Hey, we’re axing 1,500 people next quarter.”

They bury it. Hide it in performance management language. Spread it across cost adjustments. You don’t see it in real time. It’s their MO.

So if May is real, then we either missed the signs, or this isn’t an ‘SRA cycle’ at all.

And that’s where this gets really interesting.

What This Means if May Layoffs Actually Happen

Scenario 1: They’re Breaking Their Own Playbook

This would be the first time in at least a decade that Goldman executes its annual cull in Q2 instead of Q3-Q4. Why move it forward? Well, either:

• They want to space out cost reductions so they don’t need to do a bigger round later.

• They’re bracing for tougher conditions in the second half and getting ahead of it.

• They need to report lower headcount before Q2 earnings—a move that signals serious cost-cutting urgency.

Now, none of these scenarios are bullish. And if they cut 3-5% now, you’d have to assume another round later in the year.

Scenario 2: This Isn’t Just Underperformers—It’s a Red Flag

Goldman’s SRA process is standard. They trim 3-4% annually, targeting underperformers, low-revenue teams, and redundant positions. It’s been like that for like forever.

But if these May cuts aren’t performance-based, we’ve got a different story:

• They’re seeing revenue drops that aren’t in the forecasts.

• They’re responding to economic cracks showing up faster than expected.

• They’re preparing for something big ————- before it hits headlines.

Now that’s scary.

If this is more than an SRA cull, that’s when I start asking - do they know something we don’t?

To put this into perspective- an already REALLY lean organization is really going to have more cuts (2250) in the month of MAY 2025- than they did during covid? Hmmmmm.

Scenario 3: If May is Real, the Recession is Here

Look, I’ve been stress-testing my 2025 GS layoff and hiring projections for months. And nowhere, nowhere, did May look like a real cut month. Not in the models. Not in the historical cycles.

Not in Goldman’s behavior. Yeah, ofcourse we have to assume market moves - But that is only possible within stress tests. Which, yea, I also run, including 10,000 simulations.

So let’s say this does happen in May. What does that tell us?

It means Goldman is reacting to conditions changing faster than expected.

And if one of the biggest institutional players in the market is getting out ahead of something, that should scare you.

Repeat after me…. layoffs aren’t just corporate adjustments - they’re massive economic signals. And when a bank that thrives on high-risk, high-reward plays starts slashing headcount at an unusual time, it’s a signal that conditions are worse than they’re publicly admitting.

You don’t do unexpected workforce reductions unless you see revenue pressure coming.

So, is Goldman’s move a warning for what’s ahead? Because if it is, this isn’t just an internal decision - it’s a broader market signal. And again, a massive cause of worry because dominos fall ya’ll…

It’s a 50/50 Call if I Am Honest.

IDK. Maybe this is just one reporter trying to make waves.

Maybe Goldman doesn’t respond because it’s all speculation.

Maybe this May rumor dies in a week and we go back to normal.

But my gut says if Goldman does this in May, markets are in for a rough ride.

If May cuts happen, it’s a recession warning. (and that’s isn’t a surprise but it also suggests hard recession factors to me)

If they don’t, then we know Goldman is still playing the same predictable game.

Either way? I’m watching closely. It could very well be right and kudos to the journalist that got the good before ANYONE else could even verify.

Because this is exactly the kind of thing I track, model, and stress-test. You can’t predict markets if you don’t understand what firms are doing before the rest of the world catches on.

And I’ve been running the 2025 GS workforce projection stress tests for a while now. You can learn more about that at EdgePulseSignals.com. - Including 95% Backtested Insights

I’m not making a call. Just dropping breadcrumbs. Let’s see who’s paying attention.